Agricultural high temperature disaster monitoring based on meteorological data mining in Guangdong Province

WANG Danni; BAO Shitai; WANG Chunlin; TANG Lisheng

doi:10.7671/j.issn.1001-411X.2015.02.019

Journal of South China Agricultural University > 2015 > 36(2): 106-112. > DOI: 10.7671/j.issn.1001-411X.2015.02.019

WANG Danni, BAO Shitai, WANG Chunlin, TANG Lisheng. Agricultural high temperature disaster monitoring based on meteorological data mining in Guangdong Province[J]. Journal of South China Agricultural University, 2015, 36(2): 106-112. DOI: 10.7671/j.issn.1001-411X.2015.02.019

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Agricultural high temperature disaster monitoring based on meteorological data mining in Guangdong Province

1.
College of Informatics, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou 510642, China
2.
Xinhua College of Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510520, China
3.
Climate and Agro-meteorological Center of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou 510680, China

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Received Date: August 13, 2014
Available Online: May 17, 2023

Graphical Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Objective
To forecast agrometeorological disasters and their levels as an example of high te-mperature disaster in Guangdong Province.
Method
Due to lack of disaster decision rule and historical disaster level data, high temperature disaster level rules were built using fuzzy clustering algorithm (FCM) based on the meteorological data in the long term. Those rules were concluded from the cluster centers of the key attribute and membership degree matrix according to the maximum membership degree principle. Based on these rules, possible disasters and their levels were predicted by dynamic meteorological data. The back propagation network algorithm (BP) in the absence of disa-ster decision rules was applied to study historical meteorological observation data and synchronous disaster level released by the meteorological bureau. The trained BP network models were accurate to discover the inner rules of disasters, so the BP network models were fit for predicting the possible disasters and their level through dynamic observation of data at many meteorological stations.
Result and conclusion
Comparing the results of the two methods of data mining, the neural network is found slightly better than the fuzzy clustering to predict the meteorological disaster level.
- fuzzy clustering,
- BP neural network,
- data mining,
- high temperature disaster,
- disaster forecasting

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References (25)

References

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