Prediction the potential suitable areas of <i>Tithonia diversifolia</i> A. Gray and <i>Synedrella nodiflora</i> (L.) Gaertn. in China based on the optimized MaxEnt model

XIE Jing; DUAN Nishan; KONG Lijie; XU Ruiyi; AN Ruoyu; ZHOU Lijuan

Journal of South China Agricultural University > 2025 > Uncorrected proof

XIE Jing, DUAN Nishan, KONG Lijie, et al. Prediction the potential suitable areas of Tithonia diversifolia A. Gray and Synedrella nodiflora (L.) Gaertn. in China based on the optimized MaxEnt model[J]. Journal of South China Agricultural University, 2025, 46(4): 1-10.

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Prediction the potential suitable areas of Tithonia diversifolia A. Gray and Synedrella nodiflora (L.) Gaertn. in China based on the optimized MaxEnt model

College of Plant Protection, South China Agricultural University/State Key Laboratory of Green Pesticide, Guangzhou 510642, China

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Abstract

Abstract

Objective
This paper aims to study the current and the potential suitable areas of the invasive alien weeds Tithonia diversifolia A. Gray and Synedrella nodiflora (L.) Gaertn. in China, and to explore the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of these two plants. It provides a theoretical reference for the invasion monitoring of these two invasive weeds and for mastering their diffusion and distribution patterns.
Method
Fit analysis on the species distribution data and correlation analysis on the environmental variables were employed, and ENMeval was used to optimize the model of the species distribution data. The obtained distribution data, environmental variables, regularization multiplier (RM) and feature combination (FC) parameters were imported into MaxEnt for distribution prediction. Then, ArcGIS was used to obtain the current and potential suitable distribution areas.
Result
The standard deviation of seasonal temperature change and the average temperature in the coldest quarter were the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of T. diversifolia, and the sum of their contribution rates reached 70.8%. The range of annual average temperature change, annual average precipitation and precipitation in the wettest month were the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of S. nodiflora, with the sum of their contribution rates reaching 76.7%. The moderate and high suitable areas of these two plants were distributed in southern Tibet, Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Hainan and Taiwan of China.
Conclusion
Both T. diversifolia and S. nodiflora. have successfully invaded China, and are currently mainly distributed in some tropical and subtropical areas in southern China. It is predicted that they have a trend of gradually expanding towards the inland. Therefore, stronger precautions should be taken against their invasion.
- Tithonia diversifolia A. Gray,
- Synedrella nodiflora (L.) Gaertn.,
- MaxEnt model,
- Potential suitable area,
- Weed invasion

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References (24)

References

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Prediction the potential suitable areas of Tithonia diversifolia A. Gray and Synedrella nodiflora (L.) Gaertn. in China based on the optimized MaxEnt model

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