Prediction of potential suitable region for <i>Emex australis</i> in China based on the optimized MaxEnt model

ZENG Quan; ZHU Xuezhen; ZHOU Lijuan

doi:10.7671/j.issn.1001-411X.202203041

Journal of South China Agricultural University > 2023 > 44(2): 254-262. > DOI: 10.7671/j.issn.1001-411X.202203041

ZENG Quan, ZHU Xuezhen, ZHOU Lijuan. Prediction of potential suitable region for Emex australis in China based on the optimized MaxEnt model[J]. Journal of South China Agricultural University, 2023, 44(2): 254-262. DOI: 10.7671/j.issn.1001-411X.202203041

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Prediction of potential suitable region for Emex australis in China based on the optimized MaxEnt model

College of Plant Protection, South China Agricultural University/Key Laboratory of Natural Pesticide and Chemical Biology, Ministry of Education, Guangzhou 510642, China

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Received Date: March 21, 2022
Available Online: May 17, 2023

Graphical Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

Objective
The aim of this paper was to analyze and predict the potential suitable regions of Emex australis in China and the major environmental variables affecting its distribution, and provide a theoretical reference for the prevention of the invasion ofE. australis into China and protection of the agricultural production and ecological security.

Method
The Jackknife was used to calculate the influence of each environmental variable on the species distribution. ENMeval was used to optimize the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). Then the optimized model was used to predict the potential suitable region ofE. australis in China by inputting the distribution data of E. australis and the climate data under different climate scenarios.

Result
The main factor affected the distribution of E. australis was the mean temperature of the coldest month (Bio11), with a contribution rate of 27.7%. The environmental factor response curves showed that the emergence probability of E. australis was greater than 0.5, when the mean temperature of the coldest quarter ranged from 9.35 to 12.76 ℃. Results of the MaxEnt model showed that the suitable regions of E. australis in China were mainly in Yunnan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Fujian.

Conclusion
A normalized monitoring scheme should be established for the suitable area of E. australis. In the years when the mean temperature of the coldest quarter in the suitable region is good for its survival, monitoring efforts should be strengthened to prevent its colonization and distribution in China.
- Emex australis,
- MaxEnt model,
- Potential suitable area,
- Weed invasion

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References (44)

References

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Prediction of potential suitable region for Emex australis in China based on the optimized MaxEnt model

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