Prediction of potential distributions of Bretschneidera sinensis, an rare and endangered plant species in China

Objective The present study aimed to investigate the geographical distribution pattern and predict the potential distribution range of Bretschneidera sinensis, a rare Tertiary tree species in China.

Method A maximum entropy algorithm modelling program (Maxent) and GIS software systems of DIVA-GIS 7.4.0 and ARCGIS 9.1 were used to construct ENM based on 110 occurrences in 13 provinces or regions and 19 climatic factors in 1950-2000 and the 2070s.

Result and conclusion Bretschneidera sinensis exists in subtropical evergreen broadleaved forests, evergreen needle-leaved forests or deciduous broadleaved forests in middle mountain regions at an altitude between 500 to 2 000 m, with a warm temperature and abundant precipitation.The most suitable habitat was predicted to be located in the ranges of Mts.Nanling, Mts.Luoxiaoshan and Mts.Mufushan.The most suitable environmental conditions for B.sinensis were revealed to be characterized by the precipitation of the warmest quarter with an average rainfull between 500 and 2 750 mm and a day-night temperature difference between 7.8-9.8 ℃. With the global climate change, the potential distribution range of B.sinensis shows a trend to move northwards in response to global warming.Therefore, environmental and climatic factors involved in the geographical distribution and endangered status of B.sinensis have been analyzed.Accordingly, conservation strategies are suggested for in situ and ex situ conservation of B.sinensis.