Prediction of potential suitable region for Emex australis in China based on the optimized MaxEnt model
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摘要:目的
分析预测南方三棘果Emex australis在我国的潜在适生区以及影响其分布的主要环境变量，为防止南方三棘果入侵我国和保护我国农业生产、生态安全提供理论参考。
方法运用刀切法(Jackknife)计算各个环境变量对物种分布的影响。使用ENMeval软件包对MaxEnt生态位模型进行优化处理，将南方三棘果的分布数据和不同气候情景下的气候数据输入优化后的MaxEnt模型，对我国潜在分布区进行预测。
结果最冷季度平均气温(Bio11)对南方三棘果分布影响最大，贡献率为27.7%。环境因子响应曲线表明，最冷季度平均气温为9.35~12.76 ℃时，南方三棘果的存在概率大于0.5；MaxEnt结果表明，南方三棘果在我国的适生区主要集中于云南、广东、广西和福建。
结论对我国南方三棘果适生区应当建立常态化监测方案，在适生区最冷季度平均气温适宜其生存的年份要加大监测力度，防止其在我国定殖、扩散。
Abstract:ObjectiveThe aim of this paper was to analyze and predict the potential suitable regions of Emex australis in China and the major environmental variables affecting its distribution, and provide a theoretical reference for the prevention of the invasion ofE. australis into China and protection of the agricultural production and ecological security.
MethodThe Jackknife was used to calculate the influence of each environmental variable on the species distribution. ENMeval was used to optimize the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). Then the optimized model was used to predict the potential suitable region ofE. australis in China by inputting the distribution data of E. australis and the climate data under different climate scenarios.
ResultThe main factor affected the distribution of E. australis was the mean temperature of the coldest month (Bio11), with a contribution rate of 27.7%. The environmental factor response curves showed that the emergence probability of E. australis was greater than 0.5, when the mean temperature of the coldest quarter ranged from 9.35 to 12.76 ℃. Results of the MaxEnt model showed that the suitable regions of E. australis in China were mainly in Yunnan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Fujian.
ConclusionA normalized monitoring scheme should be established for the suitable area of E. australis. In the years when the mean temperature of the coldest quarter in the suitable region is good for its survival, monitoring efforts should be strengthened to prevent its colonization and distribution in China.
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Keywords:
- Emex australis /
- MaxEnt model /
- Potential suitable area /
- Weed invasion
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图 2 环境变量重要性的刀切法检验结果
Asp: 坡向；Slo: 坡度；Elev: 高程海拔；Bio9: 最干季度平均温度；Bio4: 温度季节变化标准差；Bio3: 等温性 ( Bio2/ Bio7) ×100；Bio2: 昼夜温差月均值；Bio19: 最冷季度降水量；Bio15: 降水量变异系数；Bio14: 最干月降水量；Bio11: 最冷季度平均温度；Bio1: 年平均温度
Figure 2. Results of Jackknife for the importance of the environmental variables
Asp: Aspect; Slo: Slope; Elev: Elevation; Bio9: Mean temperature of the driest quarter; Bio4: Standard deviation of seasonal variation of temperature; Bio3: Isothermality; Bio2: Mean diurnal range; Bio19: Precipitation of the coldest quarter; Bio15: Precipitation seasonality; Bio14: Precipitation of the driest month; Bio11: Mean temperature of the coldest quarter; Bio1: Annual mean temperature
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图 4 南方三棘果在中国的适生区(2022年)
Figure 4. Current suitable regions of Emex australis in China (2022)
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图 5 4种气候情景模式下南方三棘果在中国的适生区
Figure 5. The suitable growth reqion of Emex australis in China under four climate scenarios
表 1 环境变量因子
Table 1 Environmental variable factors
变量 Variable 描述 Description 变量 Variable 描述 Description Bio1 年平均温度/℃ Annual mean temperature Bio12 年均降水量/mm Annual mean precipitation Bio2 昼夜温差月均值/℃ Monthly mean diurnal temperature range Bio13 最湿月降水量/mm Precipitation of the wettest month Bio3 等温性/% (Bio2/Bio7) ×100 Isothermality Bio14 最干月降水量/mm Precipitation of the driest month Bio4 温度季节变化标准差/℃ Standard deviation of seasonal variation of temperature Bio15 降水量变异系数 Standard deviation of the precipitation Bio5 最暖月最高温/℃ Maximum temperature of the warmest month Bio16 最湿季度降水量/mm Precipitation of the wettest quarter Bio6 最冷月最低温/℃ Minimum temperature of the coldest month Bio17 最干季度降水量/mm Precipitation of the driest quarter Bio7 年均温度变化范围/℃ Temperature annual range Bio18 最暖季度降水量/mm Precipitation of the warmest quarter Bio8 最湿季度平均温度/℃ Mean temperature of the wettest quarter Bio19 最冷季度降水量/mm Precipitation of the coldest quarter Bio9 最干季度平均温度/℃ Mean temperature of the driest quarter Elev 高程海拔 Elevation Bio10 最暖季度平均温度/℃ Mean temperature of the warmest quarter Slo 坡度/° Slope Bio11 最冷季度平均温度/℃ Mean temperature of the coldest quarter Asp 坡向 Aspect 
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表 4 不同时期气候情景下南方三棘果在中国潜在适生区的面积
Table 4 Areas of the potential suitable region for Emex australis in China under different climate scenarios in different periods
×104 km2 年份 Year 气候情景 Climate scenario 低适生区 Low suitable region 中适生区 Middle suitable region 高适生区 High suitable region 总适生区 Total suitable region 2022 44.02 13.36 11.63 69.02 2040 SSP1-2.6 38.09 19.93 5.51 63.54 2040 SSP2-4.5 41.71 15.67 7.71 65.10 2040 SSP3-7.0 34.27 19.88 9.18 63.34 2040 SSP5-8.5 38.59 16.76 7.54 62.90
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