褐稻虱种群数量动态的短期预测

    SHORT-TERM FORECAST OF THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF BROWN RICE PLANTHOPPER

    • 摘要: 本文在多年同次世代平均生命表的基础上,应用种群矩阵模型讨论揭稻虱种群数量动态的预测问题,褐稻虱种群生命表划分为卵、1~2龄若虫、3~5龄若虫及成虫4个阶段。这4个阶段的历期不相等,本文把这4个阶段继续细分为等期的日龄状态,与此相适应,种群矩阵模型的转移矩阵也扩展为相应维数的方阵,结合输出方程,输入始发期1天调查的各虫期的密度,连续输出约40天内各期的密度,在水稻品种对褐稻虱的抗性级别基本不变,其他干扰因素比较稳定的条件下,预测结果对当地有一定的参考价值。

       

      Abstract: Based on the average life table,by means of the population matrix model,the abort-term forecast of the population dynamics of brown rice planthopper,Nilaparvata bgugems(BPH) was studied in this paper.The BPH population was grouped in the life table,during the egg,1st-2nd instar of nymph,3rd-5th instar of nymph and adult stages.It was problem that the developmental rates in various stages were unequal.In this paper,the varias groups were subdivided into daily states to compose the state vectors and the transitional matrix is also expanded to square matrix correspondingly.The BPH numbers in daily stages would be outputted continuously fir 40 days (x (t1) to x (t4s)) by using the output mathematical model,when the state variables of the initial time (X (ts)) were inputted.The forecasting results from the output mathematical model may be realised in the similar conditons,if the rice variety resistance range to BPH and the other interference factors are not changed evidently.

       

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