花生锈病流行电算模拟模型CSGR—1的结构和检验
COMPUTER SIMULATION OF GROUNDNUT RUST: STRUCTURE AND VALIDATION OF CSGR-1
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摘要: 本文详细地报道了花生锈病流行电算模拟模型一号CSGR—1的模块结构和检验结果,从利用CSGR—1的全部模拟输出和田间病情实测值所作的统计分析结果来看,各种参数检验方法均表明其输出是可信的。 在对CSGR—1的检验中,引用了线性方程参数的置信区间检验法和模拟准确度计算方法。前一方法与现行的线性参数t测验法的理论相近,但结果似乎较直观些,后者则是一种较温和的检验方法,其结果只是一个程度参数,表明模拟结果与实测值的接近程度,不作肯定或否定之类的统计结论。Abstract: The structure of CSGR-1 (a Computer Simulator of Groundnut Rust,No. 1) is described in detail with the result of its validation test. The comparison of the results of the tests of total simulation outputs and the observed values in field with several statistical methods showed that the structure and behivor of the model is reliable. Two methods, confidence range of linear parameters and accuracy analysis,were introduced into the validation test of the model. The former resembles to a certain extent the t-test of linear parameters in a theoretical sense but the conclusion obtained is more directly percievable than that of t-test, and the latter is a mild method which only presents a parameter of accuracy, giving no definite, positive or negative, statistical conclusion.