Objective To investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of cultivated land resources and their fragmentation levels in Guangdong province, thereby promoting rational land resource allocation.

Method Based on six periods of land use data from 2000 to 2024, GIS , SPSS, and Fragstats tools were employed to measure cultivated land fragmentation at the geographic sub-divisions, municipal, and county levels from a landscape pattern perspective. The PLUS model was used for scenario simulation and prediction.

Result ① From 2000 to 2024, the province's cultivated land area exhibits a trend of rapid decline followed by gradual recovery, with 2010 marking a turning point—net reduction in the earlier period and net increase in the later period. ② From 2000 to 2024, cultivated land fragmentation at the county level in Guangdong province shows an evolutionary trend of intensification followed by alleviation, with the core area of the Pearl River Delta maintaining a high level of fragmentation for a long period of time and presenting a gradient distribution of "high core - low periphery", some agricultural counties in western Guangdong and mountainous counties in northern Guangdong forming a dispersed high-value agglomeration area, and the coastal areas in eastern Guangdong and the ecological barrier areas in northern Guangdong maintaining a low and stable value. ③ Multi-scenario simulation in 2035 shows that: under the natural development scenario, the CLFI is lower than in 2024, while the Pearl River Delta region with high fragmentation maintains elevated values. The cultivated land protection scenario significantly alleviates fragmentation in agricultural zones and counties bordering urban areas, achieving simultaneous optimization of cultivated land quantity and spatial patterns. The CLFI values under the ecological protection scenario are comparable to those under the natural development scenario, indicating limited improvement effects.

Conclusion Over the past two decades, cultivated land fragmentation in Guangdong has generally followed a pattern of initial intensification followed by gradual improvement across geographic zones, cities, and counties. Comprehensive management of cultivated land fragmentation should be strengthened through location-specific approaches tailored to local conditions, thereby promoting large-scale development and sustainable utilization of Guangdong's cultivated land resources.