Objective To predict the potential suitable area of Paris thibetica under the current and future conditions, explore the main environmental factors influencing its distribution, and analyze the spatial distribution pattern and the trend of the centroid transfer.

Method The optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution areas under different climate conditions in the current and future four periods (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, 2090s) based on 19 environmental factors and data of 143 distribution sites.

Result The optimal model parameter combination was RM=0.5 and FC=LQ. The prediction accuracy of MaxEnt model was relatively high, with AUC=0.930. The standard deviation of temperature seasonal variation, the minimum temperature of the coldest month, the annual temperature range, the annual average precipitation, and the average precipitation of the coldest quarter were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of P. thibetica, with a cumulative contribution rate of 75.6%. Under the current climate background, the total suitable habitat area of P. thibetica was 235.14 × 10⁴ km², accounting for 24.49% of China’s total land area, and these habitats were concentrated in the border areas of Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan and Tibet, as well as in Hunan, Hubei, Fujian and other regions. In the future, the suitable habitats showed a pattern of “shrinking westward and retreating eastward”. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the area of suitable habitats in the 2090s was only 48.30% of the current level, and the highly suitable habitats contracted toward alpine valleys. The centroid of suitable habitats migrated northwestward along the Hengduan Mountains under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, or toward southeastern Tibet under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.

Conclusion The ecological niche of P. thibetica is synergistically regulated by temperature and humidity variables. Projected climate warming will exacerbate suitable habitat fragmentation, with the Hengduan Mountains potentially functioning as a critical climatic refugium. These findings provide a robust scientific basis for P. thibetica’s in-situ conservation, ex-situ conservation and germplasm resource bank establishment.