Objective The green and low-carbon development of agriculture is an inevitable choice to break the dual constraints of resources and environment. Clarifying the interaction between agricultural modernization and agricultural carbon emissions provides the scientific basis for achieving agricultural emission reduction and green transformation.

Method This study constructed a multidimensional indicator system to comprehensively measure the agricultural modernization level and carbon emission intensity in Guangdong Province. The spatial pattern of low-carbon agricultural modernization level in Guangdong Province was determined, and bivariate local indicators of spatial association (Bivariate LISA) was employed to analyze their spatial association and differentiation, so as to provide a theoretical basis for formulating categorized low-carbon agricultural modernization pathways.

Result 1) From 2017 to 2023, the overall agricultural modernization in Guangdong Province was generally in a transitional development stage. The level of modernization was constantly improving, and the overall intensity of agricultural carbon emissions was declining. The enhancement of agricultural modernization had shifted from promoting to inhibiting carbon emissions. Spatial differentiation between the two was significant at the county scale, with different evolution characteristics. The spatial shift of the agricultural carbon emission center lagged behind agricultural modernization. 2) Low-value areas of low-carbon agricultural modernization were mainly concentrated around the core area of the Pearl River Delta, while high-value areas were concentrated in the Leizhou Peninsula and Chaoshan Plain, showing a strengthening spatial agglomeration trend over time. 3) The agricultural modernization level and carbon emission intensity exhibited significant spatial dependence, but the their relationship was not linear. Long-term analysis revealed that agricultural modernization first promoted and then inhibited the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions, and the agricultural development model acted as a key mediator. There were multiple carbon emission modes in agricultural modernization of Guangdong Province. The existence and expansion of high modernization-low emission (H-L) mode showed important progress in agricultural low-carbon transition, providing empirical experience for the coordination of agricultural modernization and agricultural carbon emission reduction.

Conclusion The relationship between agricultural modernization and carbon emissions is not simply linear, but shows significant spatial heterogeneity and path dependence, with synergistic effect depending on the choice of development pathways. Low modernization-low emission (L-L) areas should leverage green advantages to support modernization. In high modernization-high emission (H-H) areas, it is necessary to promote green low-carbon technologies to replace the original elements of high emission and implement the combination strategy of emission reduction and sink increase. Low modernization-high emission (L-H) areas should reconstruct their agricultural modernization development strategies across multiple dimensions such as agricultural input-output-sustainability. H-L areas should expand their development advantages to form a demonstration effect.