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    基于MaxEnt模型的中国雷公藤气候适生区评价与时空演变预测

    Prediction of Climatic Suitability and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Tripterygium wilfordii in China Based on the MaxEnt Model

      摘要
    • 摘要:
      目的 雷公藤Tripterygium wilfordii Hook. f.是我国重要的药用植物，凭借广泛的药理活性，在传统中药资源中占据重要地位。然而受气候变化和人类活动等因素影响，其自然分布区正面临逐渐萎缩与破碎化的风险。研究旨在系统评估其当前及未来的适宜生境格局。
      方法 本研究基于430条物种分布记录，采用空间稀疏化方法降低样本空间分布不均的影响，结合气候、土壤和地形等共10个环境变量，利用变量贡献率、Jackknife检验及多重共线性分析(Pearson |r| ≥ 0.8)筛选关键变量。基于MaxEnt建立一个雷公藤适宜性预测模型，通过调节特征组合(Feature classes, FC)与正则化倍数(Regularization multiplier, RM)优化模型超参数，并以修正的赤池信息准则(Akaike information criterion corrected, AICc)和部分受试者工作特征曲线(Receiver operating characteristic, ROC)为评价指标，最终确定最优模型参数组合(FC = LQT，RM = 2.9)。该模型预测了雷公藤在当前及未来4种共享社会经济路径(SSP126、SSP245、SSP370、SSP585)下，2040 s、2060 s、2080 s和2100 s 4个时期的潜在适宜分布区，并分析了关键环境因子及分布重心的时空迁移趋势。
      结果 结果表明，当前雷公藤适宜生境主要分布于中国中南部和西南地区，尤以四川、湖南、贵州和湖北等省为核心分布区域，高适宜区面积为5.011 × 105 km2，中适宜区面积为7.001 × 105 km2。主要环境驱动因子包括BIO14(最干月降水量)、BIO6(最冷月均温)、BIO18(最暖季降水量)、BIO3(等温性)、BIO17(最干季降水量)及海拔(ALTITUDE)。未来气候情景下，雷公藤适宜生境整体呈下降趋势，2020—2100年间在SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585情景下高适宜区面积分别减少至 4.402 × 105 km2、3.377 × 105 km2、2.674 × 105 km2 和 2.178 × 105 km2。适生区破碎化加剧，分布重心整体略向东南方向迁移。
      结论 本研究揭示了雷公藤在气候变化背景下的分布动态，为其资源保护、生境管理与气候适应型引种提供了科学依据，并为中药资源适生区的动态评估与应对策略制定提供了重要参考。

       

      Abstract:
      Objective Tripterygium wilfordii Hook. f. is an important medicinal plant in China that occupies a significant position among traditional herbal resources due to its wide pharmacological activities. However, its natural distribution area is facing progressive shrinkage and fragmentation under the influence of climate change and human activities. This study aims to systematically evaluate its current and future habitat suitability patterns.
      Method Based on 430 occurrence records, a spatial thinning method was applied to reduce the impact of uneven spatial sampling. Ten environmental variables, including climatic, edaphic, and topographic factors, were selected through analyses of variable contribution rates, Jackknife tests, and multicollinearity (Pearson |r| ≥ 0.8) to identify key variables. A habitat suitability prediction model for T. wilfordii was established using MaxEnt, and the model’s hyperparameters were optimized by adjusting Feature Classes (FC) and Regularization Multiplier (RM). AICc and partial ROC were used as evaluation indicators, and the optimal parameter combination was determined as FC = LQT and RM = 2.9. The model predicted the potential suitable distribution of T. wilfordii under current conditions and four future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) for the 2040 s, 2060 s, 2080 s, and 2100 s. The key environmental factors and the spatiotemporal migration of the distribution centroid were also analyzed.
      Result The results showed that the current suitable habitats of T. wilfordii were mainly distributed in south-central and southwestern China, with core areas in Sichuan, Hunan, Guizhou and Hubei provinces. The highly suitable area was 5.011 × 105 km2, and the moderately suitable area was 7.001 × 105 km2. The main environmental driving factors included BIO14 (precipitation of the driest month), BIO6 (minimum temperature of the coldest month), BIO18 (precipitation of the warmest quarter), BIO3 (isothermality), BIO17 (precipitation of the driest quarter) and altitude (ALTITUDE). Under future climate scenarios, the overall suitable habitat area of T. wilfordii showed a decreasing trend. From 2020 to 2100, the highly suitable areas under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios were projected to decline to 4.402 × 105 km2, 3.377 × 105 km2, 2.674 × 105 km2 and 2.178 × 105 km2, respectively. Habitat fragmentation was expected to intensify, and the distribution centroid would slightly shift toward the southeast.
      Conclusion This study reveals the distribution dynamics of T. wilfordii under climate change and provides a scientific basis for its resource conservation, habitat management, and climate-adaptive introduction. The results offer important references for dynamic assessment and strategy formulation of medicinal plant suitable habitats.

       

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