Mathematical model analyses of laying curves for layer breeders in natural mating cages
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摘要:目的
筛选适合四层层叠本交笼鸡舍种鸡的最佳产蛋曲线数学模型。
方法所有试验鸡均饲喂于全封闭式鸡舍四层层叠式本交笼，采集19~61周龄的海兰褐父母代种鸡的产蛋记录，运用伍德模型、McMillan模型和杨宁模型拟合种鸡产蛋率，并比对分析3种模型的拟合效果。
结果3种模型均可用于产蛋率拟合，杨宁模型、McMillan模型和伍德模型R值分别为0.997 87、0.964 63和0.764 57，说明杨宁模型的拟合效果最好，McMillan模型次之，伍德模型最差。杨宁模型更适合实际观测数据，适合程度约为McMillan模型的1.160 37×1026倍，为伍德模型的1.599 31×1042倍。不同生产阶段的产蛋率呈不同特征，与海兰褐标准产蛋率相比，种鸡在产蛋率上升阶段的实际观测值低于相同周龄的标准值。
结论杨宁模型最适合四层层叠本交笼鸡舍种鸡产蛋率拟合，生产过程中要根据模型和产蛋曲线特征科学合理地饲养管理，以达到生产效益最优化。
Abstract:ObjectiveTo screen the best mathematical model of laying curves for layer breeders in layer breeder houses installed natural mating cages with four overlap tiers.
MethodAll the experimental Hy-Line Brown parent stock layers were fed in the closed layer breeder houses installed natural mating cages with four overlap tiers, and laying records from the 19th to 61th week were collected. The laying rates were fitted using Wood model, McMillan model and Yangning model respectively, and their fitting effects were compared.
ResultAll three mathematical models were available for laying rate fitting. The R values of Yangning model, McMillan model and Wood model were 0.997 87, 0.964 63 and 0.764 57 respectively, which showed that Yangning model was the best, followed by McMillan model and Wood model successively. Yangning model was more suitable for actually observed data, and the suitability degree was 1.160 37×1026 times of McMillan model, 1.599 31×1042 times of Wood model. The laying rate curves showed different characteristics in different periods. Compared with the standard laying rates of Hy-Line Brown stock layers in the same age, the experimental laying rates of layer breeders during early rising stage were lower.
ConclusionYangning model is most suitable for laying rate fitting of layer breeders in layer breeder houses installed natural mating cages with four overlap tiers. The feeding management should be carried out scientifically and reasonably according to fitting model and egg production curve to maximize the benefits in production process.
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Keywords:
- layer breeder /
- natural mating cage /
- laying curve /
- mathematical model /
- fitting effect
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图 1 伍德模型的产蛋率拟合曲线和标准曲线比较
Figure 1. Comparison of the laying rate fitting curve of Wood model with the standard curve
表 1 3种模型拟合效果分析和参数估计
Table 1 The fitting effect analyses and parameter estimations of three models
模型 拟合效果分析 参数估计值1) P R a b c d 伍德模型 0 0.764 57 0.000 04 3.718 14 0.089 96 McMillan模型 0 0.964 63 1.227 28 0.006 65 0.268 61 19.474 91 杨宁模型 0 0.997 87 1.063 45 0.003 83 1.210 20 22.339 65 1) a：最大潜在产蛋率，b：产蛋率下降参数，c：产蛋率上升参数，d：开产周龄 
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表 2 3种模型产蛋率拟合结果比对1)
Table 2 Comparisons of laying rate fitting effects of three models
模型比对 模型 F P 赤池信息量准则值(AIC值) 赤池权重值 比对1 伍德模型 194.172 81 1.110 22×10–16 –156.739 29 7.255 43×10–17 McMillan模型 –231.063 68 1 比对2 伍德模型 3 762.760 01 0 –156.739 29 6.252 69×10–43 杨宁模型 –351.095 58 1 比对3 McMillan模型 — — –231.063 68 8.617 95×10–27 杨宁模型 –351.095 58 1 1) “—”表示F检验失效，未得到确定值
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