Objective To predict the of Paris thibetica explore the main environmental factors influencing its distribution, and analyze the spatial distribution pattern of the potential suitable area and the trend of the centroid transfer.

Method The optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution areas under different climate conditions in the current and future four periods (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, 2090s) based on 19 environmental factors and data of 143 distribution sites.

Result The optimal parameter combination of MaxEnt model was regularization multiplier = 0.5 and feature combination = LQ. The prediction accuracy was relatively high, with area under curve = 0.930. The standard deviation of temperature seasonal variation, the minimum temperature of the coldest month, the annual temperature range and the annual average precipitation were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of P. thibetica, with a cumulative contribution rate of 68.9%. Under the current climate background, the total suitable habitat area of P. thibetica was 235.14 × 10⁴ km², accounting for 24.49% of China’s total land area, and these habitats were concentrated in the border areas of Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan and Tibet, as well as in Hunan, Hubei, Fujian and other regions. In the future, the suitable habitats showed a pattern of “shrinking westward and retreating eastward”. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the area of suitable habitats in the 2090s was only 48.34% of the current level, and the high-suitable habitats contracted toward alpine valleys. The centroid of suitable habitats migrated northwestward along the Hengduan Mountains under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, and toward southeastern Tibet under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.

Conclusion The ecological niche of P. thibetica is synergistically regulated by temperature and humidity variables. Projected climate warming will exacerbate suitable habitat fragmentation, with the Hengduan Mountains potentially functioning as a critical climatic refugium. These findings provide a robust scientific basis for P. thibetica’s in-situ conservation, ex-situ conservation and germplasm resource bank establishment.